627 Covid19 deaths, today in Italy

"El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!" (lightningzone) 03/20/2020 at 13:36 • Filed to: None

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33

235 in Spain.

This is getting ridiculous. You’d say medicine advanced more than that in the last hundred years(I’m looking at you Spanish flu).

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farscythe - makin da cawfee! > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 03/20/2020 at 13:48

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yeah...things got out of hand bad in italy

its ramping up pretty quick everywhere in europe

i figures either europes got a worse strain than china did.... or chinas numbers are waaaaay off

(mostly thinking the latter)

Nom De Plume > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 03/20/2020 at 13:53

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The day after they expelled Western media the number of active cases started declining and there were zero deaths.  The other interesting dance number is “Putin on the Risk”.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 03/20/2020 at 14:00

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I’m fearful to say this but I am guessing the US will surpass Italy in the next few weeks. By a huge margin. 

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > Nom De Plume 03/20/2020 at 14:01

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E90M3 > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 03/20/2020 at 14:03

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Will be interesting to see the numbers when everything is over, see if smoking or something like that is a common factor in a lot of the deaths. 

ranwhenparked > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 03/20/2020 at 14:04

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We've got a much bigger population, even if our mortality rate comes out lower, it's still going to be a lot more people

JMordu becoming “savethemilanos” > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 03/20/2020 at 14:06

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Absolutely. We’re much larger, with worse healthcare and if we take the 100th case as “day 0" are already ahead of I taly’s cases for the same day

gettingoldercarguy > ranwhenparked 03/20/2020 at 14:09

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We’re already running out of masks here in Washington. At that point hospitals stop taking in patients.

https://www.providence.org/lp/100m-masks

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 03/20/2020 at 14:11

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I’m not sure what’s in it for them, if they don’t report new cases. It’s not like people will rush on the next plane to Beijing tomorrow or anytime soon. 

Ash78, voting early and often > E90M3 03/20/2020 at 14:14

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Yeah, I don’t want to sound callous, but I would love to eventually know the numbers for people without highly correlated pre-existing conditions of any kind.

Speaking of that, my grandmother in FL (age 98 ) is in the hospital for COPD right now, plus she’s prone to pneumonia. She goes to the hospital about once every 3-4 months but this is the first time I’ve ever actually been stressed about it.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 03/20/2020 at 14:15

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Not to “go there”, but yeah, I’m surprised that ANYBODY (least of all the Chinese News Network here) believes the official reported numbers out of China at this point. These are the same guys that insisted it “wasn’t transmissible in humans” in the beginning.

Of course, they said that their improvements (massive dredging) around the Spratly Islands were to improve shipping safety by installing lighthouses and buoys. Here’s what a Chinese shipping safety improvement looks like, apparently.

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > E90M3 03/20/2020 at 14:16

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We’ll probably have bigger problems when the pandemic is over. Like not letting the global economy die out in a recession that’s said to come close to the 19 30's one .

ranwhenparked > gettingoldercarguy 03/20/2020 at 14:16

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We will have no choice at a certain point. Our society hasn't had to confront death in a face to face way in a very long time, we're been kind of spoiled that way

TheRealBicycleBuck > E90M3 03/20/2020 at 14:16

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Exactly! There may be other factors at play in Italy. It could be the health care system, but it could also be something behavioral (i.e. smoking) or common usage of an over-the-counter drug (i.e. ibuprofen), or even something genetic that’s prevalent in their population. Maybe it’s because they gathered in large crowds and unknowingly spread the contagion far and wide before the lockdown.

E90M3 > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 03/20/2020 at 14:20

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I think it’ll depend on how long it lasts for and when people start getting paid again. I’m still at work right now. 

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 03/20/2020 at 14:22

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couldnt tell you mate... but chinas not exactly known for being transparant or particularly honest...

so lets just say im giving them the doubt of the benefit

(they did however donate something like 50k facemasks to us so hey..thanks china)

E90M3 > Ash78, voting early and often 03/20/2020 at 14:25

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I bet that number has got to be very low. It’s probably low enough where I’m not really personally worried about getting it, not that I want it or would want to spread it around, but I still do have to think about myself, first and foremost. My girlfriend is a physician and is pretty nonplussed over the whole thing.

My mom was worried about her parents who are in their mid-80s, who are very susceptible to something like this. 

E90M3 > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/20/2020 at 14:28

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I’m going with there has to be some other factors at play, they have an old population with a lot of smokers. Stopping the virus is more paramount than figuring out who it killed and if they had something else going on, but it could be good to know for future scenarios .

gettingoldercarguy > ranwhenparked 03/20/2020 at 14:31

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“If you are above a certain age and we have a shortage of ventilators, you don’t get one,” Cassie Sauer, CEO of the Washington State Hospital Association explained. “This has never happened in America at this level for this sustained time. … It is unprecedented and it should not happen.”

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Nom De Plume 03/20/2020 at 14:32

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I suspect that China’s situation is a bit of both under reporting and an intense response once they did take it seriously. Wuhan is still largely locked down. So far China has had the most extreme response of any of the countries dealing with it. But, I also wouldn’t trust any of the official numbers coming from China.

ranwhenparked > gettingoldercarguy 03/20/2020 at 14:37

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Well, we wouldn’t think we’d potentially have 20% of the population needing ventilators at once, that’s an enormous amount of ventilators, I wonder if that many have ever been manufactured all together.

Granted, we’ve got 64 people nationally in critical/serious condition at the moment, probably because the 219 that died were in that state beforehand, so we’re not there yet. But we will be, no matter what. The virus is now the dominant lifeform on the planet, the world belongs to it now.

My bird IS the word > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 03/20/2020 at 14:47

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/health/wuhan-coronavirus-deaths.html

I have not seen one outlet reporting on the most likely statistical oversight: unreported cases or cases where symptoms were not noticeable

So it’s likely lower than that IMO unless I hear different.

Nom De Plume > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 03/20/2020 at 14:48

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Not to mention those who volunteered to go into the second worst outbreak area with supplies and scientific muscle.

Ash78, voting early and often > E90M3 03/20/2020 at 14:56

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Same here, most of our friends are families like us and nobody is really concerned for themselves (except maybe their sanity, and I can’t overstate that enough. It’s pretty bad, like a tornado warning that never ends.). But at least they’re conscientious enough to know that we could all easily infect those around us.

Side note: My GVL rental guy finally agreed to a refund. He wasn’t being a dick, he was just waiting to see how bad it was really going to be . And we weren’t exactly excited about driving 5 hours just to be stuck in a house. We can do that at home!

Next week: Spring Break staycation, pollen edition™

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > gettingoldercarguy 03/20/2020 at 16:04

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T hat’s the reality of the Coronavirus age. Even in Europe, where healthcare is provided for all and there are more beds and medical staff per capita, the system is overwhelmed. Doctors in Italy have to prioritize patients, as younger and healthier patients have more chances to survive the virus. Not to mention that medical professionals and other responders who are fighting the virus or people who have to go to work to keep things going(law enforcers , supermarket staff, pharmacists or delivery personnel) are catching the virus themselves, in an alarming rate .

gettingoldercarguy > ranwhenparked 03/20/2020 at 16:06

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I think people who work in this field did. The lay person didn't.  We set ourselves up for this by dismantling instead of advancing systems and processes to deal with these scenarios.

gettingoldercarguy > ranwhenparked 03/20/2020 at 16:11

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https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/03/19/susan-rice-trump-administration-coronavirus-warning-sot-tsr-vpx.cnn

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 03/20/2020 at 16:32

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4,072 deaths in Italy out of 47k total tested positive. That’s a mortality rate greater than 8.5% of known cases. That is staggeringly high.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

For those seeing the current US rates and thinking meh it’s decreasing, it’s at around 1% now - take this as a warning. Today we are around where Italy was ~2 weeks ago. If we start taking this for granted Italy today should be seen as a warning as to where this could lead, if not worse.

DipodomysDeserti > Ash78, voting early and often 03/20/2020 at 16:37

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And that, balanced with the reduction in air pollution in big cities.

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 03/20/2020 at 16:40

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It’s not that Italy or Europe got a worse strain, it’s simply that China, given how their society is structured, was able to take far more drastic measures without all the dilly dallying the western world (for legitimate reasons in some cases) has had to do, before shutting people in their houses.

Beyond that I’m not willing to buy in to or start threads promoting conspiracy theories. The WHO has extensive access to what is going on in China - they would be ringing alarm bells if they found significant misreporting. Also many US companies (including my employer) have significant operations in China - it is not some grim dystopian hellscape right now, things are returning to relative normalcy. We’re seeing this through our production chains. If the country is in some massive death spiral and continued/increasing restrictions that is being hidden from us by the media we would know through other means.

I’m as suspecting of the Chinese government as anyone else. But don’t mistake a country’s government with it’s people. Also don’t project the legitimate failures of European and American authorities as something other than that - simply that we’re fighting something worse than what countries in Asia had to endure. 

gettingoldercarguy > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 03/20/2020 at 16:42

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Controlling dissent is a big thing there

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 03/20/2020 at 16:56

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In all fairness, Northern Italy has a bigger percentage of old people than oher places in Europe, but there are deaths among the younger patients too, so the best bet is not to get sick, at least until they make a vaccine, and that can be a year away or so. 

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 03/20/2020 at 17:07

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Yup exactly, any vaccine is a long ways away - it’s dangerous for people to even think a miracle cure is just around the corner, and “only” 200 have died so whatever.

And also for the older people - given the number of folks over 65 in this country and existing health conditions (diabetes, obesity) wouldn’t say that aspect is too incomparable .